Week #2 Blog

There appears to still be haggling around the election going on in Israel. It is reported that Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman may not recommend either of the two major candidates: Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu or Kadima chairman Tzipi Livni. President Shimon Peres is having to consult with all the parties involved. There need to be 61 Knesset members out of 120 backing the major candidates. It appears that only 28 members would vote for Livni (those in her party) while Netanyahu has 45 with 27 from Likud, 11 from Shas, 4 from National Union and 3 Habayit Hayehudi. This puts neither near the 61 needed but Netanyahu is closer. Livni has lost some of Kadima’s normal allies because of her attempts to sway Lieberman who they oppose. There has been talk of a rotating prime minister which Livni opposes but Netanyahu is in favor of. Normally Lieberman would be in support of Netanyahu but he opposes Shas while Netanyahu openly supports and so there are concerns that he may side with Kadima in order to shut them out of power. Ultimately, Peres has eight days to figure out who the government will be composed of and there are sources who say be may decide as early as Saturday night, and no later than early next week.

The Washington Post reports that Rwandan troops have moved into the Congo in it’s eastern hills which happen to be oil rich. The Rwandan and Congolese both say that the purpose is for the two countries to deal with the Rwandan Hutu militia which is also called the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda. The two countries have had tension but they seem to be working together now and ending their proxy war with Rwanda arresting rebel leader Laurent Nkunda and the Congo turning on it’s ally the DLFR and helping Rwanda military forces hunt them down. However, many doubt that Rwanda is sincere in it’s desires to help the Congo since they said this was not their problem before and there is no reason to think the DLFR is any strong. Many thing there is something else going on between the two countries It is also noted that this increase in wealth for soldiers may reduce tension in Rwanda. This situation has put some pressure on the president of the Congo, Joseph Kabila, for in an untrusted party into the country. That said, Kabila’s allies, as well as those in the West support this alliance as a sign that the two countries see that working together has benefits for both of them. Another factor may be that an UN report noted their proxy war and connections between each country and it’s proxy and that hurt their international aid. This, and an expectation that their aid might increase if they work together, may also be part of the explanation for this partnership.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that in Venezuela, Chavez won removal of term limits for himself. The term-limits removal was supported by 54.3% of the population and Chavez, in his third, six year term, can now run as many times as he likes. Chavez calls this the third stage of the Bolivarian revolution. The first step being when he and other army officers tried to overthrow then President Carlos Perez and though he failed and was jailed, his words then led to his election in 1998. This was the second time he attempted this with it failing the first time. However, he capitalized on his popularity and got this voted on before the plummeting price of oil, coupled with serious problems like runaway crime, could cause him to lose support. While Chavez’s tenure has been chaotic in many ways, he has used the oil wealth of his country to create many social programs to help the poor and is appreciated for this by many of them. However, the government is also somewhat authoritarian with him purging the Supreme Court of enemies and the National Assembly being composed of mostly allies. Many countries were watching these events from small populist countries around Venezuela with close ties to him to countries like the United States. While the US was not pleased with the results, it seems that perhaps Venezuelans who oppose Chavez were more concerned.