Recaps and Iran rears it's head

In Israel there is continued discussion about their elections by Richard Cohen in the Washington Post. Peres has selected Binyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister and he now has to compose a government. This article stresses Cohen’s disapproval with Avigdor Lieberman being a part of that government. Cohen calls him an anti-Arab demoguage and makes the case that Lieberman’s views are dangerous and bad for Israel. He makes the point that despite Israel’s ability to consistently win, winning is not everything but rather losing gracefully is important. He also makes the point that Israel had overall, decided not to let ethnic cleaning be a part of their policy, despite their issues with the Arabs around them because they had suffered that fate themselves. He sites the Israeli statesman Weizmann who said the world will judge Israel by what it does to it’s Arab members. This article looks at the elections in a very liberal perspective. Rather than looking at issues of security, it seems to be more focused on human rights and on values. It is also dealing with the domestic politics of the country and stating that they will have an effect on the international politics of Israel which is also a liberal idea. Frankly, that seems somewhat unlikely because of Israel’s military force but that is a question for another time.

In Zimbabwe, the AP reports that Mugabe is looking forward to new elections soon. He has made the point that they are in an interim government and as such, are not permanently in a unity government. He has stated that this solution is only until new polls are done and a new constitution is made. There is already a dispute between Mugabe and Tsvangirai about many officials that Mugabe has appointed including the central bank governor. Mugabe also spoke against using the South African rand to replace the Zimbabwean dollar since many countries are not willing to accept Zimbabwe’s currency. Tsvangirai wants to get loans from the West to try and get the country on the right track again but many western donors are wary to give until they see that Mugabe is willing to share power with his former rival. Mugabe has also be pressured to release political prisoners as a sign of commitment to the government by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Frankly, it seems like Mugabe is very unlikely to actually give in to these demands. As mentioned before, he has the military power still in his hands and so there is no way that Tsvangirai can actually make Mugabe do anything. Plus, now that Tsvangirai is part of the government, it would be harder for other countries to intervene because they have given legitimacy to the government by having it formed with someone they support. It is now even less likely the international community will take strong steps because now that means hurting one of their allies.

Another issue that is coming up is talking to Iran. The US News and World Report reports that this issue has gotten more complicated because there is an election coming up in Iran between the conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the more moderate former president, Mohammed Khatami. The Obama administration is concerned that speaking to Ahmadinejad will just help him in winning reelection. They are also concerned that speaking right now to Ahmadinejad may create the impression that his way of dealing with the US is the right way. Because of these two issues, the Obama Administration is thinking of waiting until after the June election. Still, the support of nuclear weapons for Iran will likely be supported by Khatami as well. There is also the issue of the response of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since he fears that speaking with the West may hurt his regime. It seems that this article is mixing both liberal and realist ideas. While it is concerned about the effects of talking to Ahmadinejad because it feels like they might support his ideas and they think they might be a better deal from Khatami, they also acknowledge that he might support the program as well. The argument is essentially that it is seems in the security interest of Iran to have nuclear weapons. This is a more realist argument. That no matter who is in power, there are security issues and they trump all and also that the leader does not matter much because of these concerns force their hand.

Week #2 Blog

There appears to still be haggling around the election going on in Israel. It is reported that Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman may not recommend either of the two major candidates: Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu or Kadima chairman Tzipi Livni. President Shimon Peres is having to consult with all the parties involved. There need to be 61 Knesset members out of 120 backing the major candidates. It appears that only 28 members would vote for Livni (those in her party) while Netanyahu has 45 with 27 from Likud, 11 from Shas, 4 from National Union and 3 Habayit Hayehudi. This puts neither near the 61 needed but Netanyahu is closer. Livni has lost some of Kadima’s normal allies because of her attempts to sway Lieberman who they oppose. There has been talk of a rotating prime minister which Livni opposes but Netanyahu is in favor of. Normally Lieberman would be in support of Netanyahu but he opposes Shas while Netanyahu openly supports and so there are concerns that he may side with Kadima in order to shut them out of power. Ultimately, Peres has eight days to figure out who the government will be composed of and there are sources who say be may decide as early as Saturday night, and no later than early next week.

The Washington Post reports that Rwandan troops have moved into the Congo in it’s eastern hills which happen to be oil rich. The Rwandan and Congolese both say that the purpose is for the two countries to deal with the Rwandan Hutu militia which is also called the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda. The two countries have had tension but they seem to be working together now and ending their proxy war with Rwanda arresting rebel leader Laurent Nkunda and the Congo turning on it’s ally the DLFR and helping Rwanda military forces hunt them down. However, many doubt that Rwanda is sincere in it’s desires to help the Congo since they said this was not their problem before and there is no reason to think the DLFR is any strong. Many thing there is something else going on between the two countries It is also noted that this increase in wealth for soldiers may reduce tension in Rwanda. This situation has put some pressure on the president of the Congo, Joseph Kabila, for in an untrusted party into the country. That said, Kabila’s allies, as well as those in the West support this alliance as a sign that the two countries see that working together has benefits for both of them. Another factor may be that an UN report noted their proxy war and connections between each country and it’s proxy and that hurt their international aid. This, and an expectation that their aid might increase if they work together, may also be part of the explanation for this partnership.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that in Venezuela, Chavez won removal of term limits for himself. The term-limits removal was supported by 54.3% of the population and Chavez, in his third, six year term, can now run as many times as he likes. Chavez calls this the third stage of the Bolivarian revolution. The first step being when he and other army officers tried to overthrow then President Carlos Perez and though he failed and was jailed, his words then led to his election in 1998. This was the second time he attempted this with it failing the first time. However, he capitalized on his popularity and got this voted on before the plummeting price of oil, coupled with serious problems like runaway crime, could cause him to lose support. While Chavez’s tenure has been chaotic in many ways, he has used the oil wealth of his country to create many social programs to help the poor and is appreciated for this by many of them. However, the government is also somewhat authoritarian with him purging the Supreme Court of enemies and the National Assembly being composed of mostly allies. Many countries were watching these events from small populist countries around Venezuela with close ties to him to countries like the United States. While the US was not pleased with the results, it seems that perhaps Venezuelans who oppose Chavez were more concerned.

Intro into IR

There seem to be many interesting events going on in the world today. One of the most interesting seems to be happening in Israel. In the Jerusalem Post, they report about the end result of an election with three major contenders and parties: the Likud Party backing Binyamin Netanyahu; the Kadima Party backing , and Israel Beiteinu backing Avigdor Lieberman. It seems that none of the parties have won enough seats to win a majority with the Kadima and Likud Party both being further ahead and so both want Israel Beiteinu to join with them. However, Lieberman wants an easing of the conversion process and civil registration for couples that want to be married but are unable to under the Orthodox law. While it seems Lieberman wants a high post as well, the two positions mentioned before are the ones that determine if he will join with Likud. Lieberman wants to be in a right-wing coalition but the ultra Orthodox Shas (a important bloc in Likud) dislike Lieberman intensely but if Netanyahu wants to gain power he will need Lieberman. A fact made more difficult by the fact that the Shas are heavily opposed to the two major things (eased conversion and civil marriage) that are most important to Lieberman. Still, Netanyahu has picked former justice minister Yaakov Neeman who led an effort to unifiy different factions of Judaism in teaching courses so it seems that Netanyahu is moving into the direction of actively courting Lieberman. Things look as if they are moving in the direction of a right-wing government. It will be some time before we actually see what happens in that situation.

Not that far away, there was another interesting election going on. The International Herald Tribute reports President Robert Mugabe has sworn in his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai as the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. This is a surprising turn of events in many regards because of the violence that has occurred around this election on the part of supporters of Mugabe on supporters of Tsvangirai. This occurred with some pressure from South Africa on Tsvangirai to join in a power sharing government with Mugabe after the election issues that occurred last year. Despite agreeing to rule together they argued intensely over many issues of power like Tsvangirai wanting to have control over the police but they are sharing that power while Mugabe still has other elements of the security under his control. This is a sources of Mugabe’s power. Tsvangirai also has announced that he will name his party’s secretary general Tendai Biti as the finance minister. An interesting situation since Biti has called Mugabe a dictator and harshly criticized his economic policy. Though the tension is not one sided with Biti only recently having treason charges again him dropped.

Finally, there have been another set of elections in Iraq recently. These elections have been supported and applauded by the US and Iraq however the author of this piece, David Salman, notes that there was an unusually low voter turnout. In fact, he states that turnout is lower than any other election since the US invaded Iraq. There were lots of efforts by the candidates, media, electoral commission and an increase in security to make these elections a success but they feel well below the predicted 70-80 percent of the vote and were about 51 percent. Many complained of the job of the current councils and that they were not getting good services when asked why they did not vote in this election. Others said they were too busy trying to make a living or had difficulty trying to decide who to vote for between the 14,400 candidate for 440 seats on the provincial council. In Karbala, there were 1200 candidates alone. Also, Sunni areas had lower turnout that other areas. While it is disappointing that the turnout in Iraq was so low, being that Iraq has rarely had truly democratic elections (as far as I know), it seems odd to be comparing the elections here to those. Also, while 51 percent is not a great number, it’s only about 11 percent above the United States. The fact that they were aiming for 70-80 percent is interesting since we rarely get such good numbers here. Still, the world of elections around the world are quite fascinating.